Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 or $300,000 by Christmas based on the 'power law' model.

Bitcoin recorded a 10% increase in July, reaching a new peak of 118,600 USD. According to anonymous analyst apsk32, this could just be the beginning of a parabolic bullish run. This analyst believes that if history repeats itself, the price of Bitcoin could hit 258,000 USD.

According to apsk32, the price movement of Bitcoin has followed a long-term strength trend line, a mathematical model reflecting the exponential growth of BTC over time. This model measures price deviations from the trend line, not only in currency units but also over time, a method known as the Temporal Strength Law Band.

The Bitcoin strength curve measured in USD and gold. Source: apsk32/XThe analyst explains that Bitcoin is currently ahead of its two-year strength curve. This means that if the price remains unchanged, it will take more than two years for the long-term trend line to intersect with the price of Bitcoin again. Apsk32 stated:

"We are currently at over 79% historical data according to this index. The top 20% is what I call 'extreme greed,' which typically occurs once every four years."

The "extreme greed" zone ranges from 112,000 USD to 258,000 USD, corresponding to the euphoric peaks of Bitcoin in the years 2013, 2017, and 2021. The analyst implies that "if the four-year model continues," Bitcoin could reach levels from 200,000 USD to 300,000 USD by Christmas, before the bullish momentum begins to weaken in early 2026.

In this context, Satraj Bambra, CEO of the Rails trading platform, shared that several macroeconomic forces could drive Bitcoin to grow strongly in 2025. Bambra pointed out that the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expanding and there is a shift toward lower interest rates, potentially under new Fed leadership to respond to economic pressure from tax increases, which are key factors. These changes could stimulate a broad bullish trend for risk assets, with Bitcoin being one of the beneficiaries.

Bambra emphasized that the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropping below 100 is an important signal for this macro shift, suggesting that a wave of interest rate cuts and new stimulus may soon follow. In this context, the CEO stated:

"I predict that Bitcoin will follow a parabolic shape in the range of 300,000 USD – 500,000 USD, driven by two main forces."

Bitcoin ETF is catching up with gold

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are gradually closing the gap with gold, accounting for 70% of net inflows year-to-date, according to Ecoinometrics. This strong recovery from a slow start in 2025 indicates increasing interest and confidence from institutions in Bitcoin as a legitimate store of value.

Bitcoin is still considered a risky asset, with a moderate correlation to the Nasdaq 100 index over the past 12 months, in line with its five-year average. The low correlation with gold and bonds highlights Bitcoin's unique role in the investment portfolio.

Reflecting this viewpoint, Fidelity's Global Macro Director, Jurrien Timmer, recently remarked that control has returned to Bitcoin. According to Timmer, the narrowing gap in the Sharpe ratio between Bitcoin and gold indicates that BTC offers superior risk-adjusted returns. The Sharpe ratio measures the excess return an asset provides compared to the accepted level of risk, comparing its performance to a risk-free benchmark adjusted for volatility.

The Sharpe ratio between gold and Bitcoin | Source: Jurrien Timmer/XThe chart is based on weekly data from 2018 to July 2025, showing that Bitcoin's return (1x) is gradually approaching gold (4x). In terms of relative performance, gold stands at $20.34, while Bitcoin has risen to $16.95.

Mr. Giáo