今天在同一時間刷到了中文區和英文區關於牛市已經瀕臨尾聲的看法。

其實我主觀上也是贊同這個看法的，所以才認爲降息後可能帶來的不是繼續走牛，而是階段性、甚至技術性的持續回調。

但客觀來說，有兩個關鍵數據仍不符合這個論斷（也許未來會符合）：

1. 穩定幣的持續增發仍未長期陷入停滯；

2. BTC目前積聚的大量流動性仍未流出。

所以客觀來說，即使牛市已經到了尾聲，也還會有至少1-3個月的高位派發期，這個區間我認爲會在10w以上。

從2017年的牛市至今，週期性的反轉都是在市場極度樂觀但買盤力不從心的情況下出現的，當下市場的情緒在我看來，只有悲觀，以及擔心利潤回撤的焦慮。

但買盤力不從心，需求疲弱，確實已經非常明顯了，因此還是需要留意一下的…

———————-EN———————-

Today, I was scrolling through both the Chinese and English-speaking crypto communities, and the consensus seems to be that this bull run is on its last legs.

I’m personally bearish on this too. It makes me think that once the interest rate cuts hit, we won’t see another leg up. Instead, we could be looking at a multi-month, if not technical, correction.

But let’s be real, two key data points still don't line up with that narrative (at least not yet):

1. Stablecoin issuance hasn't stalled out long-term.

2. The massive liquidity still locked in BTC hasn't started to flow out.

So, even if the bull run is nearing the end, we've still got at least a 1-3 month distribution phase ahead of us. My bet is this happens somewhere above the $100k mark.

Looking back at cycles since 2017, the major reversals only happen when the market is euphoric, but the buy pressure is running on fumes.

Right now, the vibe feels more like fear and anxiety about profits getting rekt.

That said, the demand is clearly weak and the buy pressure is definitely feeling exhausted.

So, we all need to be on high alert and not get caught on sleeping…🤣