Crypto market July Observation: Gearing up, riding the wave

crypto market secondary fund Metrics Ventures July market observation guide

1/ Following our consistent view since May, the continued return of market risk appetite has driven the continuous rise of the price center. ETH has shown a significant excess return, becoming the hottest topic of discussion in the current market, with frequent hot spots in both cryptocurrencies and stocks, and transaction volume continuing to expand.

2/ For Ethereum, we believe that there is no need to overly focus on short-term trends before the ETF staking is implemented, interest rate cuts enter the mid-term, and panic buying occurs. The short-term speculative hotspots for funds will always shift, and we maintain our view on ETH.

3/ Bitcoin faced a new selling pressure of 10 billion USD in July. However, under this rigid selling pressure, the intrinsic volatility of this asset remains below 10%. The high degree of chips being locked around 120,000 USD is astonishing. Such selling pressure not only proves the asset's properties but will only change the graphics and structure of the final cycle, without altering the reality of bull and bear markets. We remain very optimistic about the future market.

4/ The global monetary easing cycle has begun, and Trump's global maneuvering has provided a solid foundation for the relaxation of financial regulation in the dollar system and the continued upward trend in risk appetite. Ride the wave, stay focused, and quietly wait for the moment of divergence in the buying frenzy.

Overview and Commentary on the Overall Market Trends and Market Movements

In the past month, the entire dollar market has returned to the familiar low-volatility upward trend of the past few years, with momentum typically focused on localized event-driven assets, and even within sectors, there hasn't been particularly strong correlation. However, the trends of Meta and ETH indicate unusual optimism and aggressiveness, which is worth noting. In our previous monthly report, we repeatedly pointed out that the market in Q3-Q4 this year would be driven by the return of risk appetite and the unification of interest rate cut expectations. At this moment, both of these driving factors have entered the mid to late stages, and we have already observed:

①In the context of the supreme leader's overwhelming power, the world outside of the big country bows and submits, and domestically, including the Federal Reserve's reserves, everyone yields in unison.

② The relentless position rebuilding by dollar institutions and the continuous return of the dollar exceptionalism theory;

③ The relaxation of financial regulation is continuously promoted by the ongoing introduction of various bills, financial on-chain activities, and the easing of leverage ratios;

Overall, we believe that the easing of the money supply will at most reach the midpoint in the price game, but the expected game will also enter a period of extreme competition. Therefore, in the short term, the game regarding short-term data and technical patterns will be a continuous negative EV strategy. Price rotation is healthy, and the increase in trading volume has become a neutral event that requires careful analysis.

As for the RMB market, the analysis from the end of last year is slowly gaining traction. At this moment, technology (chips, AI, etc.) and inflation (chemicals, non-ferrous metals) are seen as the best segments in the eyes of MVC. Investors are welcome to inquire.

The market fluctuates up and down, momentum comes and goes, and people's hearts waver as a result. The chips of the old coin circle are also gradually flowing away in this process. I hope that we can find the next phase peak of the dollar cycle in the upcoming period with all the teachers. Ride the Wave and Have fun.