Is Bitcoin trapped in a macro hell? Top analysts warn of a potential crash crisis in Q4.

In the summer of 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) set a historical high of $123,000 driven by global demand, but suffered a sharp decline at the end of July, with a monthly drop of 7-8%, reaching a low of $112,000 at one point. As the market enters a period of turbulence, top analysts warn: the fourth quarter may face even more severe collapse risks. Can Bitcoin escape the macro hell? This article takes you into a deep analysis.

Profit-taking and institutional sell-offs triggered a fall

The sharp fall of Bitcoin at the end of July was partly due to large-scale profit-taking by long-term holders, miners, and institutional investors. It is reported that Galaxy Digital sold 80,000 BTC for a client, valued at approximately 9 billion USD, becoming one of the triggers for this round of decline.

ETF fund outflow intensifies selling pressure

Despite the strong overall performance of Bitcoin ETFs in July, there was a capital outflow of 920 million USD within just four days at the end of the month. SoSoValue data shows that ETF inflows have been sporadic, and the market lacks new incremental demand, leading to weakened price support. Blockchain analysis platform ArabxChain pointed out that during the ETF capital withdrawal period, the market struggled to find enough buying interest to fill the gap.

Macroeconomic environment and policy uncertainty overlap

Although the U.S. economic growth rate reached 3%, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged, failing to provide a significant boost to the market. President Trump called for a rate cut, but the policy has yet to materialize, and the uncertainty in macroeconomic trends and policies has further exacerbated the volatility of Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment Divergence

Coinglass liquidation heatmap shows that investors are very confident about BTC returning to $120,000, with positions concentrated in that range. Top analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that Bitcoin's short-term performance is decent, but we still need to be wary of the risk of a pullback to the $110,000 to $112,000 area. Bitcoin founder Robert Kiyosaki believes that August may see historical lows, but does not rule out the opportunity to buy on dips.

Conclusion

Bitcoin quickly fell into a macro purgatory after reaching record highs, with market divergence intensifying, and the risk of a fourth-quarter crash cannot be ignored. Investors should closely monitor ETF fund flows, changes in macro policies, and key technical levels to grasp the turning points between bullish and bearish.