Surviving After 477 Times of "Death Report", Will Bitcoin Fall Before the 4-Year Cycle?

477 times declared dead, from Nobel economists to bank CEOs, bitcoin has still resurrected and reached a new peak of 124,000 USD. At the same time, investors are debating whether the 4-year cycle still holds value in the ETF era? The Face Revealed: "The King" Declares Bitcoin is Dead If there were an award for persistently predicting the collapse of bitcoin, Warren Buffett would probably not be the one to receive the gold cup. Although the Omaha oracle is famous for saying "bitcoin is rat poison squared" and has criticized it 8 times, he still has to tip his hat to another figure. An interesting website called "Bitcoin is dead" has emerged not to attack but to host a "graveyard" honoring all the "obituaries" for the world's largest cryptocurrency. At the top of this "Hall of Fame" stands none other than Peter Schiff - the economist, a gold enthusiast, and a staunch skeptic of bitcoin. With 18 declarations of bitcoin being "dead," he has officially become the "king" of this special club. The list of pessimists is not lacking in illustrious names, from Nobel Prize-winning economists like Paul Krugman and Eric Maskin to the powerful CEO of JPMorgan Chase - Jamie Dimon. They, along with many other respected financial journalists and scholars, have contributed to creating a pessimistic symphony about the future of bitcoin. However, the reality is a completely different story. Despite the doomsday prophecies, on August 14, bitcoin conquered a new all-time high of 124,457 USD at (ATH). Although there was a slight adjustment afterwards, the fact that an asset continuously "dies" but still reaches a market capitalization comparable to tech giants like Alphabet or Amazon is a paradox worth pondering. This paradox raises a larger question: If the top financial minds in the world are constantly wrong, then what is really driving bitcoin? The answer over the past decade lies in a concept that is almost sacred, which is the 4-year cycle. The Life-and-Death Battle of the 4-Year Cycle For those who believe in bitcoin, the 4-year cycle associated with the "halving" event ( reduces the reward for miners ) is almost an absolute guide. Simply put, every 4 years, the supply of new bitcoin entering the market is halved, creating a supply shock, and history has shown that it is always followed by an explosive price increase. The reputable on-chain analytics company Glassnode, in a recent report, affirmed that the current price action of bitcoin still "reflects patterns from the past". They argue that despite the market's volatility, the familiar rhythm of the cycle has not yet gone offbeat. According to this model, Glassnode and many other analysts like Rekt Capital predict that the peak of this bullish cycle may occur around October of this year, which is about 550 days after the halving event in April 2024. However, there are signs that the party is somewhat "cooling down". Glassnode points out that profit-taking activity from long-term investors is at a high level, similar to the excitement phases of previous cycles. More importantly, the capital flow into the market is "showing signs of fatigue", as evidenced by the fact that the (spot bitcoin ETF) has seen a net capital outflow of nearly 1 billion USD within just a few trading sessions. This contradiction has sparked the biggest debate in the cryptocurrency community today: Is this time different? Has the 4-year cycle truly died? New Era: ETF Rises, Old Cycle Retreats? The "counter-argument" claims that the 4-year cycle is outdated, and more and more influential voices are emerging. They believe that the participation of traditional financial institutions, especially through ETF funds, has changed the game forever. The tsunami wave originates from ETF: Spot Bitcoin ETF funds are likened to a solid bridge connecting the volatile cryptocurrency market to the vast ocean of traditional finance. For the first time, institutional investors, pension funds, and ordinary people can easily, safely, and legally access bitcoin through their brokerage accounts. This massive influx of capital has the potential to overshadow the impact of the halving event. Corporate "vaults" of bitcoin: Author Jason Williams points out that the 100 companies with the largest bitcoin reserves hold nearly 1 million BTC. This figure, worth over 112 billion USD, shows that bitcoin is no longer a purely speculative asset for retail investors. It has become a strategic reserve asset for many corporations, creating a stable and long-term buying force, which has never been seen in previous cycles. The impact of macroeconomics: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, bluntly stated that "the bitcoin cycle is dead." He believes that as Bitcoin becomes more deeply integrated into the global financial system, it will be more influenced by macro factors such as the interest rate cycle of the Federal Reserve (FED) rather than just relying on the internal halving mechanism. The impact of halving will gradually diminish, while the "heartbeat" of the global economy will become the determining factor. So, who should we trust? The defenders of the traditional cycle or those who believe in a new era? The 4-year cycle may not "die", but it is evolving. The core principles of supply and demand created by halving are still there, but they are no longer the only driving force. The participation of massive institutional capital through ETFs and public companies is like pouring a huge amount of water into a lake. The water level will definitely rise, but the waves will no longer be as violent and sudden as before. For investors, this means that old rules may no longer be applied rigidly. Instead of just counting the days after halving, we now need to also monitor the inflows and outflows of ETF funds, the financial reports of companies holding bitcoin, and most importantly, the interest rate decisions of major central banks. Bitcoin may have proven itself immortal in the face of 477 prophecies of collapse, but the "obituaries" for bitcoin will likely never end. And now, it is facing a greater challenge: maturity. In the financial world, maturity means having to abandon youthful rules to enter a much more complex and unpredictable playground. The death of the 4-year cycle, if it really happens, will not be an end, but the beginning of a new chapter in the history of bitcoin.