Signs Indicating Bitcoin is Entering the Final Stage of the Price Rise Cycle

On August 22, Bitcoin (BTC) was traded around 112,450 USD and continues to struggle in its efforts to surpass the 114,000 USD threshold. On-chain signals indicate a weakening in the upward momentum, reminiscent of the familiar scenario that often appears in the later stages of a market cycle. Bitcoin Approaching Cycle Peak In the past three years, Bitcoin has had a spectacular breakout, rising up to 700% from the cycle low of 15,500 USD in November 2022 to set a new record of 124,500 USD last week. According to the market data analysis company Glassnode, compared to previous cycles, the current upward momentum suggests that Bitcoin may be just 2–3 months away from the peak of the cycle. In the latest Week On-chain report, Glassnode wrote: "In both cycles of 2015–2018 and 2018–2022, the historical peak appeared 2–3 months later than the point we are currently at in the present cycle, considering the aspect of relative time."

As of August 22, approximately 91% of the total Bitcoin supply is in profit. Notably, this ratio has remained above the +1 standard deviation band for 273 consecutive days — the second-longest period in history, only after the 335-day span of the 2015–2018 cycle. This indicates that the current cycle reflects a similar length and characteristics to the phases that previously signaled the peaks of past cycles.

At the same time, the on-chain profit-taking wave that has lasted for the past two years also reinforces the similarities with previous peak periods. Glassnode points out that when analyzing the accumulated profit ( calculated in BTC) that long-term holders ( (LTHs) — those who have held for at least 155 days — have realized from the new peak to the final peak of the cycle, the profits being taken now are even higher than in previous cycles. This shows that the LTHs are increasingly selling, reflecting the state of "extreme euphoria" that often occurs in the late stages of cycles. Glassnode commented: "Aggregating the signals, it can be seen that the current cycle has entered the final stage."

In agreement, famous analyst Rekt Capital predicts that if Bitcoin continues to follow the trajectory of historical halving cycles, the peak of the cycle is likely to occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025. "That means we only have about 1-2 months left." Bitcoin Price Rejected at 114,000 USD On August 20, Bitcoin surged strongly from the support level of 112,000 USD but was quickly halted at the resistance level of 114,000 USD, raising concerns about the possibility of a deeper correction. According to expert Rekt Capital, "114,000 USD needs to be clearly broken to confirm the downtrend. A weekly candle close below this level will be decisive." Below, the 112,000–110,000 USD range has not yet been tested in the most recent downward movement, coinciding with the 100-day simple moving average – a technical factor that could play a significant support role. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, noted that if Bitcoin continues to adjust, this area could become a "great buying opportunity" for long-term investors.

However, in the short term, the bulls must firmly defend the 110,000–112,000 USD range. If they fail, the price risks falling back to the 100,000–90,000 USD range, according to a warning from Daan Crypto Trades: "If it goes lower, the market structure will start to become quite fragile."