Bitcoin falls from its all-time high, caution increases ahead of the US CPI announcement | Virtual NISHI

*This report is an article contributed to CoinPost by virtual NISHI (@Nishi8maru), a crypto analyst at X-Bank.

Cryptocurrency Market Report (Written on 8/12 at 8 AM)

Bitcoin rose temporarily to near its all-time high as it surged alongside Ethereum's rally, resulting in a short cover (buyback of short positions). However, the overbought conditions in the derivatives market and caution ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement combined to suppress the upward movement, causing it to decline.

Market situation from August 11 to 12

Overall, although we are currently experiencing a temporary downturn, judging by the funding rate, Bitcoin is still at a level that is overbought in the short term (red box in the image below).

On the other hand, Ethereum's active open interest (OI) has almost been cleared, and there is a possibility that the market may rise again led by Ethereum (blue frame in the image below).

In the correlation analysis with major asset classes over the past two months, there has been a continued high correlation with the US stock index, showing a strong correlation coefficient of +0.82 with the S&P500. On the other hand, the correlation with commodities such as gold (+0.11) and crude oil (▲0.19) remains at a low level.

In the options market, there is a noticeable call position at $140,000, which is higher than the current price, indicating that many investors are anticipating an upward trend in the short to medium term.

### Current Situation Analysis (8/12 AM 8:00)

Market tension is rising ahead of the US CPI announcement scheduled for today.

The tariff negotiations with the EU and Japan have generally reached a conclusion, but if inflation continues, it will become difficult for the Federal Reserve (FRB) to proceed with interest rate cuts. In the short to medium term, there are many bullish investors, but concerns about the US CPI are weighing on the Bitcoin market, which tends to be closely linked to the US stock market.

Future indicators

August 12th Consumer Price Index in the US

August 15th U.S. Retail Sales

8/15 Consumer Confidence Index in the U.S.

You can find the list of market reports published in the past here.

Contributor: Virtual NISHI Virtual NISHIX-Bank Crypto Analyst. Collaborator on BTC Status Alert production and planner/supervisor of DECOCHART, also involved in delivering investment-related information necessary for the Japanese industry. Related: How to buy Bitcoin | Investment benefits and risks beginners should know, choosing the optimal exchange