Financial crises always erupt when people least expect them. The global economic storm of 2008 seems like it was just yesterday, and today, the U.S. economy is facing new challenges. At the recent Aspen conference, two heavyweight figures who once ran the U.S. Treasury—Paulson and Geithner—unanimously issued warnings about the current state of the U.S. economy.

Paulson bluntly pointed out that the momentum of U.S. government borrowing seems to have spiraled out of control, and this path could lead to dangerous unknown territories. He predicts that a new crisis could erupt within six months to six years; while the exact timing is difficult to determine, the arrival of the crisis seems to be a foregone conclusion.

Although Geithner believes that the market still has a certain level of confidence in the U.S. economy, he is more concerned about the political environment in Washington. He pointed out that the political deadlock is threatening some key factors that maintain the stability of the U.S. economy, such as controlling the deficit, upholding the rule of law, and ensuring the independence of the Federal Reserve. These factors are the cornerstones supporting the credibility of U.S. Treasury bonds, and once shaken, the consequences could be dire.

The two former Treasury Secretaries also specifically mentioned the negative impact of high tariff policies. Paulson believes that such policies distort the market and are detrimental to healthy economic development. Geithner was even more direct, calling it "a poison that corrodes American manufacturing." They both agreed that, despite the solid foundation of the U.S. economy, this policy is undoubtedly creating unnecessary trouble for itself.

It is worth noting that both experts emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve. They warned that any attempt to interfere with the Federal Reserve's decisions could have serious consequences.

The future direction of the U.S. economy is concerning in the face of these challenges. Although the U.S. possesses strong economic power, how it addresses its massive debt, balances political differences, and formulates wise economic policies will be key factors in determining whether it can avoid a new round of economic crisis.