The global trade order is facing significant changes, and Bitcoin is increasingly solidifying its status as "digital gold".

In March, the global market was shrouded in the haze of policy uncertainty, eager to find new support points. U.S. stocks accelerated their valuation reconstruction, and the crypto market also fluctuated accordingly. After the new tariff policy was introduced on April 2, the global trade landscape faced deep reshaping, forcing countries to urgently adjust their economic policies. In this situation, maintaining patience and calm is particularly important. As the new order gradually takes shape, market sentiment is expected to warm up accordingly.

The latest announced tariff policy is broad in scope and unprecedented in strength. The United States will impose a basic tariff of at least 10% on all imported goods and additional taxes on about 60 countries with significant trade deficits. This move has triggered severe market turbulence, with U.S. stocks and the dollar both experiencing sharp declines, and a surge in demand for safe-haven assets.

After the announcement, the risk of an economic recession in the United States has significantly increased. Moody's has raised the probability of a recession in the U.S. this year from 15% to 40%, and Goldman Sachs has also increased the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%. Some economic indicators in the U.S. showed signs of decline in March. Although the unemployment rate remains low at 4.1%, the consumer confidence index continues to weaken, and inflationary pressures remain stubborn.

Faced with the dual challenges of slowing economic growth and high inflation, the Federal Reserve's policy choices are caught in a dilemma. At the March meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but lowered its expectations for future economic growth. After the new tariff policy was introduced, the market increased its bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, with the probability of a rate cut rising to around 70%.

The impact of tariff policies extends far beyond the United States. The "reciprocal tariff" plan implemented by Trump aims to increase fiscal revenue and compel other countries to make concessions, but major economies are preparing countermeasures. Some analyses suggest that global trade frictions are evolving from "localized conflicts" into "systemic confrontations," and the global economy and financial markets will remain under pressure in the future.

U.S. stocks continued to decline in March, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping 8.7% and 12.3% in the first quarter, marking the largest quarterly decline since 2022. Since Trump's election in November 2024, the S&P 500 index has fallen over 10%, erasing $4 trillion in market value. Institutional investors are lowering their optimistic expectations for U.S. stocks, with Goldman Sachs cutting the year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,500 points to 6,200 points.

At the same time, the confusion of U.S. policy signals has further exacerbated market panic. Trump urged for interest rate cuts while not ruling out the possibility of a recession; White House officials downplayed the risks of recession while acknowledging the pains of the transition period. This contradictory stance severely undermined investor confidence, leading to a sell-off of the "Big Seven Tech" companies, with a total market value evaporation exceeding $2.5 trillion.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin performed relatively strongly in March. Although it was similarly affected by market fluctuations and policy uncertainties, Bitcoin did not experience a one-sided decline, but instead showed a "V-shaped" oscillation. The monthly decline was only 2.09%, significantly better than the Nasdaq index's 8.2% decline during the same period. Bitcoin has shown an independent market trend, demonstrating its potential as a safe-haven asset.

The attitude of the US government towards cryptocurrency assets is gradually becoming clear. On March 6, Trump signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," marking the first time Bitcoin is being managed as a permanent national asset. The SEC has also relaxed its hardline stance on cryptocurrencies and plans to hold a series of roundtable discussions, shifting from "enforcement-focused" to "cooperation and rule-making." After the SEC repealed SAB 121, several traditional financial institutions immediately launched cryptocurrency custody services.

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Institutional investors' interest in Bitcoin continues to rise. The CEO of BlackRock, the world's top asset management company, warned in the annual letter to investors that if the U.S. cannot effectively control its debt and deficits, the dollar's status as the global reserve currency may be replaced by emerging digital assets such as Bitcoin. This highlights the importance of Bitcoin in the current financial landscape.

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With the new tariff policy taking effect, the outlook for the American economy has become even more uncertain. If the U.S. economy does not fall into a deep recession and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in June, Bitcoin is expected to experience a trend reversal in the second quarter. During periods of economic instability, Bitcoin's scarcity and safe-haven attributes will become more pronounced. Once market risk appetite recovers, Bitcoin, as an emerging asset class, is likely to be the first to break through key resistance levels and undergo a revaluation.

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In the long run, if tariff policies drive up inflation and weaken the credibility of the dollar, it could prompt funds to shift towards non-sovereign assets. The CEO of BlackRock raised the question in a letter to investors: "Could Bitcoin challenge the dollar's hegemony?" suggesting that in the process of reshaping the new global financial order, Bitcoin may become the most disruptive variable.

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