今天在同一时间刷到了中文区和英文区关于牛市已经濒临尾声的看法。

其实我主观上也是赞同这个看法的，所以才认为降息后可能带来的不是继续走牛，而是阶段性、甚至技术性的持续回调。

但客观来说，有两个关键数据仍不符合这个论断（也许未来会符合）：

1. 稳定币的持续增发仍未长期陷入停滞；

2. BTC目前积聚的大量流动性仍未流出。

所以客观来说，即使牛市已经到了尾声，也还会有至少1-3个月的高位派发期，这个区间我认为会在10w以上。

从2017年的牛市至今，周期性的反转都是在市场极度乐观但买盘力不从心的情况下出现的，当下市场的情绪在我看来，只有悲观，以及担心利润回撤的焦虑。

但买盘力不从心，需求疲弱，确实已经非常明显了，因此还是需要留意一下的…

———————-EN———————-

Today, I was scrolling through both the Chinese and English-speaking crypto communities, and the consensus seems to be that this bull run is on its last legs.

I’m personally bearish on this too. It makes me think that once the interest rate cuts hit, we won’t see another leg up. Instead, we could be looking at a multi-month, if not technical, correction.

But let’s be real, two key data points still don't line up with that narrative (at least not yet):

1. Stablecoin issuance hasn't stalled out long-term.

2. The massive liquidity still locked in BTC hasn't started to flow out.

So, even if the bull run is nearing the end, we've still got at least a 1-3 month distribution phase ahead of us. My bet is this happens somewhere above the $100k mark.

Looking back at cycles since 2017, the major reversals only happen when the market is euphoric, but the buy pressure is running on fumes.

Right now, the vibe feels more like fear and anxiety about profits getting rekt.

That said, the demand is clearly weak and the buy pressure is definitely feeling exhausted.

So, we all need to be on high alert and not get caught on sleeping…🤣